* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/17/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 71 74 77 80 78 73 68 62 57 48 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 71 74 77 80 78 73 68 62 57 48 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 69 71 73 73 70 65 58 52 47 42 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 12 9 3 4 5 4 3 3 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 -2 -1 1 6 2 5 0 1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 5 330 330 327 317 317 128 135 90 121 110 260 295 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.3 25.7 25.6 25.0 24.2 23.6 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 145 140 135 132 126 120 120 114 106 100 96 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 74 75 76 75 69 63 57 54 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 28 30 30 32 31 30 28 26 25 20 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -1 -6 -3 3 11 33 45 44 69 57 61 38 200 MB DIV 61 55 48 47 51 47 49 27 -2 3 -1 -8 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -3 -3 -2 12 11 9 7 6 10 0 LAND (KM) 754 752 761 790 830 928 1024 1168 1346 1488 1638 1828 1982 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.7 19.5 20.4 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.9 113.7 114.6 115.5 117.2 119.1 121.1 123.3 125.7 128.3 131.1 133.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 24 19 13 8 8 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 28.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 10. 9. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 18. 13. 8. 2. -3. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.4 112.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/17/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.42 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.79 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.43 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 166.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.67 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.68 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 30.6% 22.6% 16.3% 14.4% 16.2% 13.5% Logistic: 13.9% 18.6% 12.4% 6.1% 3.6% 8.1% 3.0% Bayesian: 4.6% 23.4% 12.4% 4.8% 2.0% 4.6% 0.2% Consensus: 11.4% 24.2% 15.8% 9.1% 6.7% 9.6% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/17/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##