* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/18/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 65 67 68 66 63 57 52 47 42 39 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 65 67 68 66 63 57 52 47 42 39 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 61 61 61 58 53 47 41 36 32 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 6 3 2 3 8 3 2 3 8 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 1 1 6 1 5 2 4 -1 2 9 SHEAR DIR 335 325 298 254 214 181 174 218 307 292 273 274 240 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.1 25.3 24.8 24.2 23.6 23.0 22.8 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 140 135 132 130 124 116 111 105 100 94 91 95 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 76 75 73 66 62 56 56 53 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 28 25 24 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 2 3 6 14 14 26 40 37 50 24 28 3 -7 200 MB DIV 52 40 45 62 53 49 1 6 -8 -18 0 2 15 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 3 3 12 21 14 8 12 8 5 17 LAND (KM) 746 770 806 844 870 945 1106 1259 1389 1550 1751 1830 1863 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.9 20.6 21.5 22.8 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.5 115.4 116.2 117.0 118.9 121.1 123.3 125.6 128.1 130.9 133.4 135.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 10 10 11 11 13 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 14 9 7 8 8 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 3. -2. -8. -13. -18. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.1 113.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/18/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.35 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.12 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.74 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.42 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 151.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.75 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 28.1% 21.1% 14.5% 13.0% 13.4% 10.5% Logistic: 3.9% 12.8% 6.6% 3.5% 2.0% 2.7% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 14.3% 9.4% 6.1% 5.0% 5.4% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/18/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##