* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/18/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 64 65 64 64 58 55 50 43 37 36 V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 64 65 64 64 58 55 50 43 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 60 59 58 55 51 45 40 35 30 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 3 3 3 6 5 3 4 2 13 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 2 2 6 2 4 2 5 -2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 317 299 162 175 176 161 171 180 329 287 287 279 264 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.2 25.5 24.8 24.1 22.7 21.8 22.9 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 135 132 132 126 119 111 104 90 81 92 90 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 74 72 67 61 58 56 54 51 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 29 29 28 29 26 25 23 20 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 18 23 24 42 39 36 17 15 -2 -36 -64 200 MB DIV 46 39 57 49 38 19 -23 10 -26 -17 0 1 8 700-850 TADV 0 4 5 7 8 18 13 10 7 10 9 13 19 LAND (KM) 761 798 845 872 904 1031 1189 1312 1464 1632 1750 1765 1746 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.1 19.5 20.0 20.6 21.5 22.8 24.5 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.4 116.3 117.2 118.1 120.2 122.4 124.7 127.1 129.6 132.2 134.4 136.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 8 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. -2. -5. -10. -17. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.5 114.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/18/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.33 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.10 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.73 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.39 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 169.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.86 -1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 28.6% 21.5% 14.8% 13.4% 12.9% 10.4% Logistic: 2.5% 9.3% 4.7% 2.6% 1.3% 1.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 13.0% 8.8% 5.8% 4.9% 4.8% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/18/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##