* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/18/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 63 64 62 61 57 52 44 39 35 32 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 63 64 62 61 57 52 44 39 35 32 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 60 59 58 54 49 44 38 33 28 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 4 4 7 7 5 3 3 11 13 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 0 3 0 6 1 2 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 299 132 133 144 142 145 146 215 306 269 277 267 263 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 25.9 25.2 24.4 23.0 22.1 22.5 22.8 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 133 131 130 123 116 108 93 84 88 91 83 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 74 73 71 62 59 55 55 50 51 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 28 28 29 28 28 26 24 21 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 22 24 29 32 44 55 45 39 18 9 -22 -50 -90 200 MB DIV 58 64 35 20 25 11 13 1 -12 -7 -8 0 18 700-850 TADV 5 6 5 6 13 14 11 9 5 14 7 23 17 LAND (KM) 806 856 888 931 983 1123 1277 1417 1576 1720 1737 1746 1677 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.1 19.6 20.3 21.2 22.5 24.2 26.2 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.4 117.3 118.3 119.2 121.3 123.8 126.3 128.8 131.3 133.7 135.7 137.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. -3. -8. -16. -21. -25. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.7 115.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/18/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.31 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.35 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 176.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.65 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.69 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 26.8% 20.7% 14.5% 12.8% 12.0% 9.5% Logistic: 2.7% 5.4% 3.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 10.9% 8.2% 5.3% 4.5% 4.3% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/18/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##