* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 56 55 54 50 47 42 36 30 30 28 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 56 55 54 50 47 42 36 30 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 52 50 48 44 39 34 29 24 20 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 9 7 7 3 6 6 5 13 13 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 3 4 6 4 3 3 -2 2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 130 143 169 147 142 137 170 281 295 282 279 247 236 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 25.5 24.7 23.9 22.4 21.7 22.9 22.6 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 132 130 127 119 111 103 87 80 92 89 79 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 70 66 61 58 56 55 54 52 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 29 29 28 28 26 25 22 20 17 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 27 31 35 42 46 47 43 19 5 -8 -42 -73 -109 200 MB DIV 59 35 6 10 11 -5 0 3 -2 -15 8 24 26 700-850 TADV 8 9 10 12 16 11 11 11 9 10 18 24 32 LAND (KM) 829 858 884 945 1015 1189 1312 1470 1662 1742 1751 1764 1683 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.5 20.1 20.9 21.8 23.2 25.1 27.1 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.1 117.0 117.8 118.9 120.0 122.4 124.8 127.4 130.1 132.6 134.8 136.6 137.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -8. -13. -19. -25. -25. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.1 116.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.34 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.24 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 196.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.63 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 25.5% 18.5% 11.6% 10.6% 12.4% 9.4% Logistic: 1.8% 3.6% 1.8% 1.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 9.8% 6.8% 4.3% 3.8% 4.3% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/19/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##