* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/19/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 52 51 48 45 41 35 29 27 24 22 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 52 51 48 45 41 35 29 27 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 49 46 41 36 31 26 22 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 8 7 6 3 4 4 10 14 11 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 4 1 7 3 5 0 -1 3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 136 177 167 154 170 171 257 285 280 290 266 244 245 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.2 24.4 23.0 22.2 22.2 23.4 23.1 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 129 126 123 116 108 94 85 85 97 94 85 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 74 72 69 65 61 59 55 53 51 48 48 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 27 27 26 25 23 20 19 18 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 27 30 38 44 46 41 41 22 3 -16 -32 -66 -88 200 MB DIV 38 -1 -1 9 15 3 -2 -12 -23 -11 14 9 16 700-850 TADV 9 12 15 15 17 11 11 10 13 13 15 13 30 LAND (KM) 867 911 967 1043 1125 1277 1432 1608 1787 1859 1936 1830 1830 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.6 20.2 21.1 22.1 23.3 24.7 26.5 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 117.1 118.2 119.2 120.3 121.4 123.8 126.4 129.1 131.8 134.4 136.8 138.6 139.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -20. -26. -28. -31. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.4 117.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/19/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.32 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.16 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 233.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.57 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.53 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 22.0% 16.4% 10.4% 9.1% 10.8% 8.3% Logistic: 1.3% 0.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 7.6% 5.9% 3.6% 3.1% 3.7% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/19/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##