* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 53 52 47 45 40 36 30 27 21 15 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 53 52 47 45 40 36 30 27 21 15 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 53 51 48 42 36 31 26 22 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 3 0 4 4 6 10 10 17 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 7 7 9 4 5 2 -1 4 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 167 157 134 158 188 128 277 296 283 257 264 262 266 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.5 24.7 24.0 22.5 21.9 23.0 23.2 22.5 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 126 122 119 111 104 88 82 93 95 87 79 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 68 65 59 58 55 52 49 48 46 46 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 28 27 26 24 24 21 20 17 15 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 29 37 48 43 39 44 27 10 -7 -26 -42 -72 -99 200 MB DIV -8 1 18 15 -9 -3 4 -9 -3 11 5 3 -13 700-850 TADV 11 15 16 18 13 7 10 9 7 11 9 13 15 LAND (KM) 911 963 1024 1115 1203 1343 1492 1682 1811 1863 1896 1848 1846 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.5 20.0 20.7 21.6 22.7 24.2 25.9 27.7 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.2 119.2 120.2 121.4 122.6 125.1 127.5 130.2 133.0 135.4 137.3 138.8 140.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -10. -14. -16. -19. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -3. -8. -10. -15. -19. -25. -28. -34. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.7 118.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.29 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.06 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.62 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.10 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 285.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.50 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.34 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 23.1% 17.8% 11.8% 10.6% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 1.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 8.1% 6.7% 4.2% 3.7% 4.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/19/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##