* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/19/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 53 51 47 44 36 31 28 23 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 53 51 47 44 36 31 28 23 19 DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 50 47 41 35 29 24 21 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 1 1 2 5 5 8 9 11 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 7 8 4 8 0 1 5 1 3 3 SHEAR DIR 146 140 172 207 68 172 288 302 285 248 241 238 232 SST (C) 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.4 23.1 22.2 22.1 23.2 22.9 22.1 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 122 119 116 108 94 85 84 95 91 83 75 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 64 60 58 57 52 51 50 47 46 41 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 27 27 26 25 25 20 18 16 12 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 37 45 44 38 44 40 20 3 -16 -24 -61 -85 -114 200 MB DIV 0 22 24 -2 -18 -4 -1 -24 2 6 0 -18 4 700-850 TADV 14 14 18 12 10 8 14 5 8 14 11 15 15 LAND (KM) 967 1032 1103 1192 1262 1424 1573 1741 1807 1852 1822 1825 1816 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 20.2 21.1 22.2 23.5 25.1 26.8 28.6 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 119.2 120.3 121.3 122.5 123.7 126.3 128.7 131.2 133.9 136.1 137.8 139.2 140.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -11. -14. -16. -21. -23. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -19. -24. -27. -32. -36. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.9 119.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/19/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.26 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.03 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 316.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.45 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.31 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 23.6% 18.1% 11.9% 11.2% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 8.6% 6.8% 4.4% 3.9% 4.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/19/16 18 UTC ##