* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 60 58 56 49 43 36 29 27 22 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 61 60 58 56 49 43 36 29 27 22 15 DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 61 59 56 53 45 37 30 25 22 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 3 1 1 3 8 13 9 18 20 26 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 7 10 9 5 1 0 3 -1 4 2 3 SHEAR DIR 142 175 200 211 97 240 289 286 242 242 236 236 230 SST (C) 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.1 24.8 23.9 22.4 21.9 23.1 23.0 22.1 21.4 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 122 119 115 112 103 87 82 94 93 84 75 72 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 59 58 56 55 52 48 49 46 46 42 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 25 25 25 22 20 18 15 14 12 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 43 38 33 39 42 28 12 -8 -27 -42 -78 -97 -103 200 MB DIV 21 16 -3 -14 -12 0 -13 -14 10 5 28 11 10 700-850 TADV 17 19 13 11 6 11 5 10 10 19 22 24 21 LAND (KM) 1054 1139 1216 1287 1365 1530 1704 1786 1833 1863 1801 1816 1845 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.5 21.7 23.0 24.4 26.3 28.6 30.3 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.6 122.8 124.0 125.2 127.8 130.5 133.0 135.2 137.2 138.9 140.4 141.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 12 13 14 12 13 13 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -2. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -8. -12. -17. -17. -19. -23. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -4. -11. -17. -24. -31. -33. -38. -45. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.0 120.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.18 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.70 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.09 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 371.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.38 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.35 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 24.5% 19.4% 13.6% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 2.9% 5.2% 2.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 9.2% 8.2% 5.4% 0.4% 4.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/20/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##