* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 54 51 44 36 30 28 23 20 20 19 V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 54 51 44 36 30 28 23 20 20 19 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 56 53 49 41 34 29 25 22 19 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 2 2 1 5 6 7 11 16 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 9 8 7 4 0 2 3 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 166 181 149 134 126 258 273 281 226 224 238 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.5 25.3 24.9 24.5 23.3 22.2 22.3 23.3 23.1 22.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 117 113 109 97 85 86 96 94 88 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 54 53 50 48 45 46 43 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 25 24 23 19 16 16 13 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 35 42 45 47 31 16 -10 -22 -53 -68 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 -2 -18 -19 -5 -9 -24 -4 18 24 8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 14 10 7 9 8 4 9 16 14 25 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1148 1241 1315 1388 1469 1646 1850 1898 1919 1839 1747 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.6 21.6 22.9 24.6 26.5 28.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.6 122.9 124.1 125.3 126.6 129.2 132.1 134.5 136.5 138.5 140.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 12 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -15. -16. -19. -21. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -24. -30. -32. -37. -40. -40. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.1 121.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.15 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.03 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 404.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.33 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.32 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.89 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 21.3% 17.3% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.4% 6.2% 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/20/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##