* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/20/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 55 51 48 39 32 26 26 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 55 51 48 39 32 26 26 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 52 48 40 33 28 25 21 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 2 3 4 10 6 12 20 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 8 7 6 2 -1 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 172 169 106 175 266 290 283 245 226 228 245 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.3 25.0 24.6 24.1 22.8 22.1 22.5 23.4 22.9 22.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 114 110 105 91 84 88 97 92 86 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 52 51 47 46 44 45 40 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 24 23 21 18 16 16 13 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 39 43 42 33 24 2 -22 -31 -53 -69 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -20 -12 -11 5 -4 -16 -9 19 31 27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 10 8 10 9 5 5 10 17 17 20 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1243 1316 1396 1476 1564 1750 1869 1916 1880 1766 1709 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.1 21.0 22.1 23.6 25.3 27.1 28.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.7 124.0 125.3 126.6 127.9 130.6 133.1 135.5 137.6 139.6 141.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -13. -16. -21. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -12. -21. -28. -34. -34. -39. -45. -45. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.1 122.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/20/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.12 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.54 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.96 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.02 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 420.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.31 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.35 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.7 81.4 to 0.0 0.78 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 18.7% 15.9% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.4% 5.7% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/20/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##