* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/20/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 56 53 49 39 31 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 59 56 53 49 39 31 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 58 55 51 46 37 31 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 1 3 5 4 6 8 12 21 29 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 8 6 7 1 1 1 0 1 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 183 237 215 271 278 269 263 227 227 247 238 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.2 22.3 22.2 23.3 23.0 22.3 21.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 109 104 95 86 85 97 93 85 77 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 53 52 50 47 44 43 42 41 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 24 23 23 20 17 16 14 13 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 43 41 33 31 15 -14 -18 -53 -71 -92 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -12 -10 3 2 -19 -16 13 16 19 21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 9 11 7 7 4 7 15 10 28 22 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1302 1373 1453 1543 1640 1844 1877 1912 1838 1784 1791 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.5 22.9 24.7 26.7 28.6 30.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.8 125.1 126.4 127.8 129.2 131.9 134.2 136.5 138.6 140.3 141.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 13 14 13 13 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 1. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -12. -15. -17. -22. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -11. -21. -29. -31. -36. -41. -49. -50. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.3 123.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/20/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.74 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.92 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.02 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 419.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.31 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.93 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 21.9% 17.4% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 7.4% 6.1% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/20/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##