* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 48 42 35 28 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 48 42 35 28 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 45 41 34 29 26 23 19 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 1 4 5 5 13 12 18 25 29 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 5 5 2 -1 1 0 1 0 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 280 268 292 279 279 270 243 247 240 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.7 24.3 23.4 22.9 22.1 22.4 23.3 22.8 22.2 21.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 111 107 98 92 84 87 97 91 84 78 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 51 51 48 47 43 46 42 43 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 23 23 20 18 16 16 13 11 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 32 29 17 7 -23 -28 -58 -74 -66 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -9 -1 3 -15 -20 -1 11 16 5 37 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 10 6 5 5 4 9 10 15 26 23 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1381 1459 1545 1633 1728 1865 1894 1909 1802 1746 1734 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.5 20.9 22.0 23.5 25.3 27.3 29.1 30.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.9 126.2 127.6 129.0 130.3 132.9 135.1 137.3 139.3 141.1 142.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 1. -5. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -5. -8. -12. -13. -17. -20. -23. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -13. -20. -27. -27. -33. -40. -50. -50. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.3 124.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.09 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.02 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 393.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.35 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.54 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 20.7% 15.7% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.0% 5.5% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##