* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 42 37 32 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 42 37 32 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 46 42 38 34 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 5 6 10 16 18 29 32 32 44 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 5 1 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 274 276 282 273 272 260 255 255 241 232 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.3 23.4 22.9 22.5 22.2 23.3 23.2 22.8 22.0 21.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 107 98 92 88 85 97 95 91 82 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 50 47 45 45 43 43 47 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 20 19 16 14 12 9 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 32 30 20 10 -14 -20 -48 -70 -96 -86 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 0 0 -13 -19 -23 -2 3 -1 15 20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 6 4 4 5 6 14 12 26 22 35 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1459 1545 1640 1723 1812 1871 1933 1804 1731 1705 1730 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.8 24.4 26.1 27.8 29.6 31.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.2 127.6 129.0 130.3 131.5 134.0 136.5 138.7 140.4 142.0 143.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -5. -12. -21. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -19. -21. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -18. -27. -30. -34. -41. -49. -57. -57. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.6 126.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.09 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.02 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 367.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.38 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.61 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.95 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 12.6% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.2% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/21/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##