* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 42 36 31 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 42 36 31 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 47 43 39 35 29 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 10 14 14 21 29 28 32 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 2 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 2 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 266 267 266 268 264 250 250 251 234 236 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 23.5 22.9 22.5 22.0 22.4 23.3 23.0 22.7 22.2 21.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 99 92 88 83 87 96 93 89 84 81 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 49 47 47 42 45 41 45 45 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 19 18 17 14 13 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 29 21 11 0 -24 -31 -66 -80 -102 -110 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 6 -9 -16 -14 -10 -4 0 -10 -1 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 4 6 6 8 11 22 20 25 32 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1535 1614 1701 1788 1837 1886 1916 1770 1659 1613 1643 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.5 22.1 23.5 25.2 26.8 28.2 29.6 31.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.4 128.7 130.0 131.3 132.6 135.0 137.2 139.4 141.5 143.2 144.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -6. -13. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -16. -18. -21. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -19. -28. -30. -36. -42. -50. -56. -57. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.9 127.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.56 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.03 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 367.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.38 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.41 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 10.0% 8.5% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.3% 2.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/21/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##