* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 35 29 24 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 29 24 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 41 36 33 30 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 10 13 16 17 24 29 31 40 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 1 4 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 247 250 259 261 248 245 247 238 238 238 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 22.8 22.4 22.1 22.3 23.1 23.4 23.3 23.0 22.8 22.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 91 87 84 86 94 97 96 93 90 84 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -54.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 46 47 43 43 41 40 44 45 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 17 16 14 13 11 8 7 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 22 17 6 -10 -19 -42 -60 -74 -73 -57 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -9 -19 -12 -14 -8 1 -1 27 20 8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 5 4 13 12 20 18 30 21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1634 1727 1826 1860 1893 1948 1780 1628 1517 1446 1423 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.1 22.7 24.2 25.7 27.0 28.3 29.5 30.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.0 130.4 131.7 133.0 134.2 136.5 138.8 141.1 143.3 145.3 147.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -9. -18. -27. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -17. -21. -23. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -21. -27. -30. -35. -39. -49. -56. -56. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.5 129.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.54 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.01 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 348.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.41 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.33 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.6% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/21/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##