* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062017 07/12/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 44 53 65 74 80 80 84 85 84 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 44 53 65 74 80 80 84 85 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 49 58 67 73 76 80 83 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 10 7 5 3 10 3 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -5 -3 -2 -3 -1 2 -3 -3 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 55 63 54 54 53 41 46 2 345 335 330 327 309 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.9 28.4 28.7 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 152 149 149 150 146 144 150 153 149 146 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 71 70 69 70 65 66 65 64 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 11 13 15 16 17 20 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -4 6 7 3 15 24 26 32 25 23 28 33 200 MB DIV 16 17 15 15 17 47 71 62 70 60 81 79 107 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -5 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 986 1049 1118 1199 1283 1358 1469 1611 1780 1964 2193 2420 2328 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.3 112.2 113.3 114.3 116.2 118.3 120.5 123.0 125.6 128.5 131.4 134.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 27 22 20 19 21 25 33 32 17 17 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 5. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 14. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 23. 35. 44. 50. 50. 54. 55. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 110.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 SIX 07/12/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.24 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 88.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 16.0% 12.9% 10.6% 0.0% 15.1% 15.3% 12.5% Logistic: 3.1% 12.8% 5.5% 4.8% 2.8% 12.0% 20.9% 32.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% Consensus: 3.7% 11.3% 6.4% 5.2% 1.0% 9.3% 12.4% 15.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 SIX 07/12/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##