* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062017 07/12/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 53 63 73 80 84 87 90 90 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 53 63 73 80 84 87 90 90 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 37 43 51 59 67 73 79 85 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 10 8 5 6 4 4 3 4 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 -7 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 73 62 57 55 43 49 15 31 339 27 337 346 324 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.1 28.1 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 150 149 150 150 146 146 151 152 149 146 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 69 70 72 71 69 69 69 67 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 15 17 19 20 22 23 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR -2 7 7 3 3 12 18 26 26 18 10 14 20 200 MB DIV 11 13 20 27 30 66 67 80 64 90 82 87 75 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -5 -2 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1047 1111 1179 1259 1317 1419 1553 1720 1881 2042 2200 2375 2436 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.5 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.0 112.9 113.9 114.9 116.8 118.9 121.2 123.6 126.1 128.5 130.9 133.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 28 28 30 25 20 33 50 39 16 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 15. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 23. 33. 43. 50. 54. 57. 60. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 111.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 SIX 07/12/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.27 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 91.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.1% 12.4% 10.1% 0.0% 16.1% 16.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 10.5% 4.4% 3.6% 2.0% 7.0% 10.1% 15.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% Consensus: 2.2% 9.3% 5.7% 4.6% 0.7% 7.8% 9.1% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 SIX 07/12/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##