* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/12/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 45 49 58 65 74 80 86 89 90 87 V (KT) LAND 35 37 41 45 49 58 65 74 80 86 89 90 87 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 54 60 65 71 77 85 89 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 7 7 7 9 7 3 1 5 1 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 1 1 2 -1 -1 1 -2 -5 -7 0 SHEAR DIR 66 60 53 39 15 6 21 26 337 17 305 324 293 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.8 28.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 149 149 151 150 146 148 152 153 149 141 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 71 70 72 71 71 71 72 67 65 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 15 16 16 18 19 21 23 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 6 6 1 3 7 11 24 29 16 6 3 9 17 200 MB DIV 21 29 32 40 57 67 83 67 58 89 72 80 81 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 0 0 -3 -6 -6 -4 -5 -4 0 LAND (KM) 1098 1167 1242 1314 1354 1465 1632 1812 1953 2104 2247 2403 2315 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.7 113.6 114.6 115.5 117.3 119.7 122.1 124.4 126.7 128.9 131.4 134.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 11 12 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 28 30 30 23 21 40 54 39 15 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 23. 30. 39. 45. 51. 54. 55. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.9 111.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/12/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.27 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 106.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 18.0% 15.2% 13.0% 0.0% 19.3% 18.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 13.1% 6.5% 5.7% 3.3% 9.6% 15.6% 17.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 1.1% 3.2% Consensus: 3.4% 12.1% 7.6% 6.3% 1.1% 10.0% 11.6% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/12/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##