* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/13/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 57 63 72 82 90 96 97 99 99 96 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 57 63 72 82 90 96 97 99 99 96 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 55 59 69 79 89 95 102 107 106 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 7 5 5 5 4 3 4 3 6 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 4 0 -2 0 1 -3 -4 -7 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 63 50 26 45 56 3 85 32 65 356 330 329 313 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 150 150 150 146 146 150 153 151 146 141 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 71 72 72 71 71 72 71 70 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 16 16 17 19 21 22 22 26 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 9 13 15 18 31 24 15 8 6 15 31 200 MB DIV 35 43 51 75 85 48 81 70 84 67 118 100 115 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -6 -4 -5 -6 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 1164 1242 1322 1371 1428 1546 1694 1853 2001 2150 2291 2424 2301 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.6 114.5 115.6 116.6 118.5 120.6 122.9 125.2 127.5 129.6 131.9 134.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 30 30 26 20 29 46 49 26 14 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 23.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 16. 19. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 32. 42. 50. 56. 57. 59. 59. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.9 112.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.27 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 4.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 123.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.2% 34.7% 24.1% 20.4% 17.9% 26.6% 35.2% 49.0% Logistic: 12.9% 46.3% 32.9% 29.1% 23.1% 31.6% 46.7% 49.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 29.8% 8.6% 2.8% 2.1% 7.4% 12.7% 5.7% Consensus: 10.7% 36.9% 21.9% 17.5% 14.4% 21.9% 31.5% 34.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##