* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/13/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 62 66 73 83 91 97 98 96 95 91 V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 62 66 73 83 91 97 98 96 95 91 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 59 62 70 80 90 100 106 106 100 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 9 5 6 6 6 4 3 6 5 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 2 0 -3 -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 1 5 SHEAR DIR 52 27 25 44 39 23 25 35 39 342 303 3 348 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 152 152 150 146 148 152 153 149 144 138 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 74 73 71 69 70 70 68 64 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 17 16 16 18 20 23 25 27 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 13 17 17 32 36 24 17 9 17 19 39 200 MB DIV 52 55 68 90 70 61 75 76 84 93 75 77 83 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -5 -6 -8 -7 -9 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 1257 1342 1389 1447 1511 1652 1806 1943 2082 2222 2353 2462 2263 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.6 115.6 116.6 117.6 119.6 121.8 124.0 126.3 128.5 130.6 132.6 134.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 30 26 22 19 40 56 44 17 13 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 19.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 21. 28. 38. 46. 52. 53. 51. 50. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.7 113.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 5.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.19 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 127.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 6.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.3% 45.8% 29.9% 22.1% 0.0% 33.2% 48.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.2% 54.7% 38.6% 32.5% 22.9% 28.6% 37.3% 35.6% Bayesian: 5.9% 51.5% 20.4% 7.5% 1.5% 11.4% 22.6% 5.9% Consensus: 15.5% 50.7% 29.6% 20.7% 8.1% 24.4% 36.0% 13.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##