* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/13/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 68 74 78 87 94 98 101 101 100 98 91 V (KT) LAND 55 62 68 74 78 87 94 98 101 101 100 98 91 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 68 73 77 84 91 97 105 108 104 98 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 5 3 4 5 5 2 4 3 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 8 9 SHEAR DIR 24 358 3 360 350 102 7 31 353 348 2 347 4 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.6 27.9 27.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 151 150 149 146 149 152 151 143 138 131 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.4 -53.0 -52.2 -52.6 -51.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 71 74 73 73 71 71 69 71 68 63 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 18 18 19 21 23 26 28 30 33 32 850 MB ENV VOR 9 12 18 19 21 32 25 16 12 8 17 28 39 200 MB DIV 54 73 85 75 46 101 71 90 92 113 67 99 30 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -6 -6 -4 -6 -5 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1330 1382 1437 1506 1580 1716 1865 1974 2103 2228 2339 2395 2189 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.1 11.0 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.5 116.4 117.4 118.3 120.3 122.5 124.7 127.0 129.1 131.2 133.1 134.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 10 11 12 11 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 21 19 18 26 45 51 28 13 10 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 28.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 23. 32. 39. 43. 46. 46. 45. 43. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.7 114.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 10.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 11.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 10.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 9.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.28 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 156.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 4.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 5.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 56% is 7.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.1% 66.4% 52.3% 43.1% 27.2% 56.4% 50.9% 32.5% Logistic: 35.5% 65.5% 53.5% 46.4% 34.8% 40.6% 44.2% 35.7% Bayesian: 29.3% 62.2% 34.6% 20.2% 8.3% 18.6% 20.5% 1.8% Consensus: 32.0% 64.7% 46.8% 36.6% 23.4% 38.5% 38.5% 23.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##