* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/14/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 83 89 93 98 103 107 109 107 102 100 92 84 V (KT) LAND 75 83 89 93 98 103 107 109 107 102 100 92 84 V (KT) LGEM 75 83 89 94 97 101 104 105 105 102 95 82 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 6 4 4 5 2 2 3 1 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -4 -3 -1 1 -3 -2 -1 1 8 7 3 SHEAR DIR 18 16 1 358 31 358 25 310 341 12 314 334 272 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.0 26.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 149 148 146 149 152 150 143 134 126 121 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.3 -52.9 -52.1 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 70 71 71 70 70 68 62 58 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 19 21 24 27 28 28 30 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 20 27 31 17 6 3 10 15 28 34 47 200 MB DIV 74 71 56 81 86 60 83 67 116 71 91 38 41 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -4 -2 -4 -4 -1 1 4 LAND (KM) 1482 1544 1610 1675 1743 1867 1967 2088 2220 2331 2326 2128 1973 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.9 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.4 14.3 15.0 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.5 118.5 119.4 120.3 122.3 124.6 126.9 129.1 131.3 133.6 135.3 136.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 11 11 12 11 12 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 18 20 27 44 51 28 13 8 5 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 15. 15. 17. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 32. 27. 25. 17. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 11.1 116.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 10.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.32 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 11.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 8.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 8.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 218.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 49% is 6.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 3.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 5.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 49.3% 57.0% 48.0% 41.8% 28.5% 36.9% 20.7% 9.6% Logistic: 56.9% 71.0% 63.2% 57.3% 47.7% 39.3% 19.3% 10.0% Bayesian: 51.9% 69.0% 42.2% 30.9% 12.5% 13.8% 3.9% 0.1% Consensus: 52.7% 65.7% 51.1% 43.3% 29.5% 30.0% 14.6% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##