* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/14/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 89 93 95 100 101 104 102 97 91 86 79 V (KT) LAND 80 85 89 93 95 100 101 104 102 97 91 86 79 V (KT) LGEM 80 86 89 91 93 94 95 100 101 94 83 71 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 5 4 6 7 3 3 2 2 3 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 6 5 2 -5 SHEAR DIR 9 349 328 350 18 17 24 11 271 267 328 302 297 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.0 27.3 26.6 26.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 148 147 146 150 151 145 137 130 123 120 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 71 70 70 70 67 64 60 57 54 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 20 23 22 25 28 30 28 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 15 18 25 25 22 10 4 6 12 23 36 50 67 200 MB DIV 69 63 83 97 82 69 98 92 80 84 103 43 28 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -4 -6 -7 -5 -3 -3 -2 0 3 3 LAND (KM) 1538 1599 1662 1723 1787 1895 2012 2138 2265 2361 2259 2041 1817 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.4 12.0 12.7 13.3 14.0 14.8 15.5 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.3 119.2 120.2 121.2 123.4 125.8 128.1 130.3 132.3 134.1 136.0 138.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 20 25 34 50 39 16 10 6 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 5. 9. 14. 15. 12. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 15. 20. 21. 24. 22. 17. 11. 6. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 11.0 117.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 7.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 5.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 231.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.0% 36.4% 29.7% 23.8% 20.3% 24.5% 18.1% 0.0% Logistic: 17.8% 32.9% 24.0% 17.6% 10.7% 8.9% 6.4% 2.9% Bayesian: 13.5% 43.5% 19.8% 9.3% 3.6% 7.5% 2.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.8% 37.6% 24.5% 16.9% 11.5% 13.6% 8.8% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##