* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/14/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 101 104 106 109 110 111 107 98 93 84 75 71 V (KT) LAND 95 101 104 106 109 110 111 107 98 93 84 75 71 V (KT) LGEM 95 101 103 103 102 100 101 103 99 86 72 60 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 6 5 8 6 3 3 3 4 4 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 1 -1 -6 -3 -3 0 5 8 4 -4 SHEAR DIR 345 317 328 352 31 53 37 208 247 245 271 297 293 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.2 27.4 26.9 26.5 25.9 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 147 146 148 151 147 138 132 128 123 118 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 73 71 67 71 71 69 65 61 59 61 57 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 20 22 23 24 26 25 29 28 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 20 29 28 26 24 13 5 15 22 28 31 49 69 200 MB DIV 56 85 77 64 61 87 80 87 60 86 63 70 4 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -6 -7 -7 -5 -3 -3 -3 0 5 7 4 LAND (KM) 1589 1647 1709 1770 1834 1941 2056 2193 2298 2351 2204 1997 1749 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.8 12.5 13.3 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.6 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.3 120.2 121.3 122.3 124.6 126.9 129.3 131.5 133.3 134.6 136.4 138.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 10 8 8 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 22 31 41 47 23 11 7 7 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -9. -14. -20. -24. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 10. 9. 14. 12. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 12. 3. -2. -11. -20. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 11.0 118.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 6.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.24 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 305.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 1.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.2% 28.5% 23.7% 20.5% 18.9% 21.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.5% 15.0% 10.3% 6.7% 3.1% 6.8% 3.4% 1.0% Bayesian: 37.0% 45.9% 21.2% 10.5% 3.7% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 25.9% 29.8% 18.4% 12.6% 8.6% 10.2% 1.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##