* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/14/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 116 118 117 116 113 110 107 99 90 78 72 65 V (KT) LAND 110 116 118 117 116 113 110 107 99 90 78 72 65 V (KT) LGEM 110 116 116 113 110 105 106 107 99 85 70 59 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 6 2 2 1 3 7 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 -4 -8 -4 -1 6 7 2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 308 311 332 13 34 40 13 191 238 282 298 284 278 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.5 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.2 25.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 147 146 147 151 150 144 138 131 125 121 119 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 74 71 68 69 69 70 65 62 58 57 53 47 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 21 22 22 24 27 28 28 25 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 32 34 28 26 19 11 11 21 33 35 39 68 76 200 MB DIV 94 79 64 63 75 90 62 94 69 71 53 48 -1 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -8 -8 -8 -5 -2 -2 -2 3 6 7 4 LAND (KM) 1678 1737 1801 1863 1914 2034 2163 2286 2408 2227 2060 1864 1643 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.2 11.4 12.0 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.4 121.4 122.6 123.7 126.1 128.5 130.7 132.8 134.5 135.9 137.6 139.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 23 34 45 50 36 13 10 7 5 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -17. -25. -32. -38. -42. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 2. 6. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 10. 9. 4. 0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 11. 10. 7. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 7. 6. 3. 0. -3. -11. -20. -32. -38. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 10.7 119.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 350.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.7% 25.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.7% 12.0% 9.2% 5.8% 2.7% 5.0% 1.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 23.9% 4.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 23.4% 14.0% 3.3% 2.1% 0.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##