* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/15/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 131 131 129 125 122 113 98 92 79 67 61 55 V (KT) LAND 125 131 131 129 125 122 113 98 92 79 67 61 55 V (KT) LGEM 125 129 126 121 117 113 109 99 85 71 58 48 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 7 8 1 1 4 2 5 5 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -5 -2 0 2 11 11 7 0 5 SHEAR DIR 337 3 357 21 37 167 227 214 228 249 254 277 283 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.1 26.4 25.9 25.7 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 146 147 149 152 150 142 135 127 122 119 117 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 70 73 70 68 65 64 59 55 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 22 22 25 26 25 28 27 24 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 29 29 21 16 12 8 13 19 30 30 45 54 57 200 MB DIV 87 70 58 61 74 87 95 72 95 47 48 8 -3 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -6 -7 -7 -3 -1 -1 2 7 8 6 7 LAND (KM) 1736 1799 1867 1921 1981 2103 2246 2338 2361 2159 1966 1793 1637 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.4 14.2 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.3 122.4 123.6 124.8 127.1 129.4 131.4 133.3 135.0 136.7 138.2 139.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 33 45 52 48 25 12 9 7 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -26. -36. -45. -52. -58. -60. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 4. 7. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 10. 8. 2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -0. 3. 5. 3. 8. 6. 2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 6. 4. -0. -3. -12. -27. -33. -45. -58. -64. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 10.7 120.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/15/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 378.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.1% 8.8% 6.4% 4.2% 1.8% 6.7% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 12.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.6% 3.5% 2.1% 1.4% 0.6% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/15/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##