* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 109 110 110 116 112 105 91 81 73 64 59 V (KT) LAND 115 111 109 110 110 116 112 105 91 81 73 64 59 V (KT) LGEM 115 110 107 105 105 104 99 88 74 62 54 48 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 6 6 0 1 3 6 6 14 18 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -3 -3 0 5 7 3 -1 -1 7 10 SHEAR DIR 353 2 14 10 26 120 250 266 250 245 273 271 275 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.6 27.9 27.1 26.5 26.0 25.6 25.3 25.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 151 153 151 144 135 128 122 118 115 114 114 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 69 65 61 55 54 53 50 45 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 24 25 25 28 30 30 27 26 25 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 19 19 16 13 9 16 27 28 36 62 67 72 59 200 MB DIV 65 92 76 59 80 105 75 79 35 42 7 -3 -21 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -10 -9 -8 -4 -3 0 5 6 8 7 7 LAND (KM) 1913 1966 2027 2092 2162 2278 2370 2221 2059 1907 1747 1586 1420 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.4 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.0 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 123.4 124.7 125.9 127.2 128.4 130.6 132.7 134.4 135.8 137.1 138.5 140.0 141.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 50 49 40 23 15 11 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -21. -31. -39. -46. -51. -54. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 5. 9. 11. 13. 13. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 5. 7. 8. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -5. -5. 1. -3. -10. -24. -34. -42. -51. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 11.2 123.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 378.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/15/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##