* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 112 110 108 97 83 71 59 50 40 33 26 V (KT) LAND 115 113 112 110 108 97 83 71 59 50 40 33 26 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 106 100 94 80 68 58 49 43 37 30 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 3 3 1 7 8 8 12 12 20 27 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 0 4 3 7 4 1 8 9 13 4 SHEAR DIR 263 251 242 181 236 274 292 283 275 280 260 249 251 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.1 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 145 141 137 128 122 117 113 111 112 112 113 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 64 61 60 59 58 59 57 52 50 47 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 27 27 29 28 26 25 23 23 21 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 11 19 22 30 36 43 42 58 45 63 40 39 23 200 MB DIV 100 88 66 65 74 78 59 79 0 -17 2 0 -7 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -4 -4 0 4 11 5 0 6 10 8 LAND (KM) 2136 2193 2244 2273 2306 2335 2191 2037 1888 1702 1504 1323 1148 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.4 17.4 17.6 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.9 129.9 130.8 131.7 133.3 134.5 135.8 137.1 138.8 140.7 142.4 144.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 12 11 8 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -16. -26. -36. -45. -51. -55. -57. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -8. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -18. -32. -44. -56. -65. -75. -82. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 12.5 127.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 591.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 4.6% 2.8% 2.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 7.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/16/17 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##