* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 101 99 97 87 75 64 55 44 37 30 24 V (KT) LAND 105 102 101 99 97 87 75 64 55 44 37 30 24 V (KT) LGEM 105 99 94 88 82 71 60 50 42 36 30 24 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 1 3 2 5 7 13 10 15 21 31 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 1 4 8 7 1 5 6 7 1 0 SHEAR DIR 201 213 199 137 174 294 256 270 288 263 240 240 245 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.0 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 136 132 129 122 116 113 111 111 111 112 114 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.3 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 61 60 61 59 58 55 53 53 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 26 26 25 24 23 22 21 19 17 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 35 36 35 32 39 52 63 58 58 37 40 20 22 200 MB DIV 68 68 78 114 75 25 65 23 0 0 -1 4 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 0 1 4 13 7 4 4 4 2 4 LAND (KM) 2230 2254 2283 2299 2318 2240 2095 1951 1775 1594 1402 1209 1026 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.8 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 129.7 130.5 131.4 132.0 132.7 134.0 135.2 136.5 138.1 139.8 141.6 143.4 145.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -24. -32. -39. -44. -48. -49. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -8. -18. -30. -41. -50. -61. -68. -75. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 13.2 129.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.60 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 579.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 4.9% 2.5% 2.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 7.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##