* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 107 101 98 85 71 59 50 42 35 29 24 V (KT) LAND 110 109 107 101 98 85 71 59 50 42 35 29 24 V (KT) LGEM 110 107 101 93 85 70 58 49 42 36 30 24 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 4 4 6 6 9 10 11 12 21 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 4 5 7 1 7 7 8 6 8 5 SHEAR DIR 218 235 220 230 243 229 242 286 274 243 239 223 230 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.1 25.7 25.3 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 138 134 131 123 119 115 112 112 114 115 116 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -53.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 61 61 60 60 56 53 53 53 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 24 27 25 24 22 22 21 19 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 33 36 43 56 70 60 51 41 33 19 16 200 MB DIV 62 74 91 76 56 68 38 35 2 -1 0 27 15 700-850 TADV -3 1 0 1 3 6 5 -3 -1 6 3 4 4 LAND (KM) 2263 2291 2322 2333 2327 2188 2041 1873 1698 1508 1321 1121 926 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.3 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.8 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 130.5 131.3 132.1 132.7 133.3 134.4 135.7 137.2 138.8 140.6 142.4 144.3 146.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 6 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 3 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -17. -26. -35. -43. -48. -52. -54. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -9. -12. -25. -39. -51. -60. -68. -75. -81. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.5 130.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 603.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 2.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/17/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##