* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/18/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 86 81 78 68 59 51 44 36 30 25 22 V (KT) LAND 95 90 86 81 78 68 59 51 44 36 30 25 22 V (KT) LGEM 95 88 80 73 66 55 47 40 35 29 23 19 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 5 5 5 9 5 12 11 23 25 29 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 7 8 10 2 5 5 10 10 8 7 5 SHEAR DIR 192 239 257 251 237 215 261 268 242 235 232 236 242 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.2 24.9 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 130 127 124 119 114 111 110 111 111 113 114 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.7 -53.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 60 62 61 56 51 49 48 50 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 25 25 23 23 22 20 18 17 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 31 35 30 35 52 59 70 48 41 30 21 19 23 200 MB DIV 75 60 26 27 48 64 24 0 3 26 20 0 17 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 5 8 8 1 2 6 6 7 5 8 LAND (KM) 2299 2313 2329 2278 2209 2078 1932 1757 1564 1383 1225 1095 977 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.7 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 131.9 132.5 133.1 133.7 134.2 135.3 136.6 138.2 140.0 141.7 143.2 144.4 145.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 8 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 5 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -20. -27. -33. -37. -39. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -17. -27. -36. -44. -51. -59. -65. -70. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 14.4 131.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/18/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 547.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/18/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##