* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 78 72 69 59 52 45 38 31 25 20 15 V (KT) LAND 90 83 78 72 69 59 52 45 38 31 25 20 15 V (KT) LGEM 90 81 73 65 59 49 41 36 31 26 21 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 4 9 9 10 15 16 24 29 36 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 6 8 5 1 2 3 10 7 7 3 5 SHEAR DIR 214 239 243 243 207 246 258 262 238 237 230 234 230 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.3 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 126 123 120 115 112 111 110 111 112 115 118 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 62 60 60 56 53 48 48 46 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 24 22 23 21 21 20 19 17 16 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 38 31 34 48 58 73 67 43 37 23 17 22 13 200 MB DIV 48 39 25 39 48 35 14 -24 -8 6 16 -1 5 700-850 TADV 3 6 5 5 6 1 2 -1 2 1 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 2295 2311 2279 2212 2145 1997 1845 1682 1497 1346 1209 1028 827 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.4 18.7 18.8 19.2 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 132.5 133.0 133.6 134.2 134.7 136.0 137.4 138.9 140.6 142.0 143.3 145.0 146.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -25. -30. -33. -35. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -18. -21. -31. -38. -45. -52. -59. -65. -70. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.1 132.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 544.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##