* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 82 76 71 59 48 41 33 29 23 23 23 V (KT) LAND 90 87 82 76 71 59 48 41 33 29 23 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 90 85 79 71 64 52 43 36 30 25 22 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 7 9 11 11 14 17 26 26 28 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 8 2 -1 1 3 9 3 5 0 6 -1 SHEAR DIR 254 261 248 249 263 255 249 233 239 227 230 226 218 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.8 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.6 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 121 119 116 112 110 109 111 113 116 119 123 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.9 -53.8 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 61 60 56 51 47 46 43 40 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 23 22 22 21 20 20 18 18 17 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 38 48 57 56 62 62 45 38 26 27 16 26 21 200 MB DIV 32 41 48 42 27 8 0 6 -1 4 15 39 5 700-850 TADV 7 8 9 6 5 1 2 6 3 3 1 1 8 LAND (KM) 2282 2219 2158 2083 2009 1832 1657 1484 1292 1111 932 723 494 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 133.6 134.1 134.6 135.3 135.9 137.5 139.1 140.7 142.5 144.2 145.9 147.9 150.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -21. -27. -31. -34. -36. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -7. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -19. -31. -42. -49. -57. -61. -67. -67. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.8 133.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 533.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##