* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/19/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 65 60 52 43 35 30 28 23 17 18 17 V (KT) LAND 75 70 65 60 52 43 35 30 28 23 17 18 17 V (KT) LGEM 75 69 63 57 51 42 35 29 25 21 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 12 16 17 24 20 29 29 29 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 1 5 2 1 SHEAR DIR 269 273 267 258 258 231 236 214 209 202 207 213 223 SST (C) 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.5 25.7 26.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 112 110 109 108 110 112 115 118 120 124 126 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 63 61 57 51 47 42 38 36 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 20 18 18 17 16 16 15 13 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 62 70 78 73 60 48 26 14 11 3 0 -6 -8 200 MB DIV 19 15 22 6 -11 -6 13 1 15 4 14 33 15 700-850 TADV 6 6 6 6 6 11 10 6 6 7 5 7 3 LAND (KM) 2082 2013 1944 1862 1780 1596 1404 1235 1070 869 649 470 335 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 135.2 135.8 136.4 137.2 137.9 139.6 141.4 143.0 144.6 146.6 148.9 151.0 153.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -18. -21. -22. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -23. -32. -40. -45. -47. -52. -58. -57. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.2 135.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/19/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 29.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 416.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/19/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##