* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 59 53 48 37 27 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 65 59 53 48 37 27 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 64 58 52 47 38 31 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 14 18 20 22 26 29 35 32 32 30 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 5 1 5 6 5 6 SHEAR DIR 273 258 248 247 239 234 230 210 217 208 216 232 241 SST (C) 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 114 112 110 108 108 109 111 113 116 120 124 126 127 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -54.4 -55.1 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 6 6 8 7 700-500 MB RH 66 63 62 60 58 53 49 44 41 37 38 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 19 20 17 15 15 14 13 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 73 79 72 57 46 35 21 25 12 5 -11 -24 -32 200 MB DIV 13 20 4 -4 1 2 2 12 -1 20 5 2 6 700-850 TADV 7 7 7 8 8 9 4 4 3 4 6 4 -6 LAND (KM) 2004 1919 1835 1753 1671 1489 1319 1152 980 771 550 412 288 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.8 21.5 22.4 22.9 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 135.9 136.7 137.4 138.2 138.9 140.6 142.2 143.8 145.5 147.7 150.5 152.7 154.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 12 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -22. -33. -43. -47. -51. -57. -62. -65. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.5 135.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 411.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##