* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/20/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 54 48 43 34 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 60 54 48 43 34 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 60 54 49 44 36 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 20 21 20 26 25 33 33 36 33 31 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 2 1 0 0 4 3 5 5 3 SHEAR DIR 243 238 238 236 229 232 217 215 205 213 217 228 232 SST (C) 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.5 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 108 108 108 110 112 114 118 120 125 129 131 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -54.2 -54.9 -55.3 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 57 55 51 47 42 38 37 37 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 19 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 81 82 65 60 56 37 31 29 13 3 -10 -15 -30 200 MB DIV 33 9 7 5 -3 15 8 2 2 12 28 -8 23 700-850 TADV 10 10 8 5 5 5 7 7 5 12 12 8 2 LAND (KM) 1901 1813 1725 1633 1541 1382 1204 1033 881 701 507 325 234 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.6 20.2 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.4 22.9 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 136.8 137.6 138.4 139.3 140.1 141.6 143.3 145.0 146.6 148.6 151.0 153.8 156.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 10 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -22. -31. -38. -43. -48. -53. -59. -61. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.0 136.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/20/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.03 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 11.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 395.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 5.4% 3.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 1.8% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/20/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##