* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/20/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 47 40 35 28 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 54 47 40 35 28 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 54 49 44 39 32 27 23 19 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 22 22 22 26 27 30 33 30 27 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 5 -1 3 1 5 8 7 4 5 SHEAR DIR 236 242 243 236 230 220 210 202 200 207 215 224 235 SST (C) 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.8 26.2 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 110 109 108 108 109 111 113 115 118 122 127 130 132 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -54.7 -55.2 -55.7 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 4 6 5 6 6 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 65 62 59 56 55 49 42 40 35 37 36 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 17 17 18 16 16 13 15 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 80 62 53 43 42 33 26 18 0 -4 -10 -9 -22 200 MB DIV 10 4 0 -2 8 13 11 6 18 25 25 9 22 700-850 TADV 10 6 0 2 5 2 1 6 6 6 7 4 -1 LAND (KM) 1847 1760 1674 1587 1501 1319 1141 992 834 640 409 255 217 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.7 20.2 20.9 21.6 22.1 22.4 22.9 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 137.3 138.1 138.9 139.7 140.5 142.2 143.9 145.4 147.1 149.3 152.2 154.9 157.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 12 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -14. -18. -22. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -5. -9. -6. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -25. -32. -39. -42. -49. -48. -52. -51. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.1 137.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/20/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 360.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/20/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##