* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/21/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 35 32 29 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 32 29 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 40 35 32 29 25 22 21 19 18 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 26 25 25 23 30 33 34 25 24 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 2 5 0 0 0 6 3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 228 224 219 213 214 210 210 213 238 251 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 112 113 113 115 117 120 124 127 130 133 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 -53.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -55.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 50 46 44 40 36 37 36 37 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 16 15 15 14 14 16 15 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 45 36 30 30 25 16 11 -2 0 -4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 0 16 15 9 21 15 -7 33 15 46 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 9 5 5 5 5 7 11 9 7 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1467 1365 1263 1171 1079 890 687 495 334 189 111 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.9 141.9 142.8 143.7 144.5 146.3 148.3 150.4 152.6 155.1 157.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -18. -23. -27. -29. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -16. -20. -25. -29. -29. -29. -28. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.3 140.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/21/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 33.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 338.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/21/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##