* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/21/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 34 32 28 27 23 25 22 20 18 18 V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 34 32 28 27 23 25 22 20 18 18 V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 31 29 26 24 22 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 28 23 25 28 36 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 3 1 -3 2 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 230 219 213 212 215 214 215 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.7 26.2 26.5 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 116 117 118 121 126 129 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -55.1 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 44 40 40 38 39 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 14 16 15 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 24 28 25 21 9 6 -8 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 6 6 20 32 13 7 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 8 10 6 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1223 1115 1007 911 816 622 377 211 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.5 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.2 144.2 145.2 146.1 147.0 148.9 151.5 154.0 156.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -18. -23. -28. -32. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -6. -8. -12. -13. -17. -15. -18. -20. -22. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.5 143.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/21/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.32 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 40.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 328.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/21/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##