* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/22/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 23 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 23 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 26 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 24 27 33 39 36 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 7 3 -1 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 212 214 211 211 224 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.6 26.0 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 116 117 118 119 124 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 41 40 38 38 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 7 6 0 0 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 17 16 15 0 -12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 8 9 9 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1093 996 901 795 693 488 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.7 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.4 145.3 146.2 147.2 148.2 150.3 152.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -10. -19. -27. -35. -39. -39. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -13. -18. -21. -24. -27. -28. -28. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 144.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/22/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 48.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 260.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/22/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##