* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/22/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 29 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 29 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 30 28 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 27 30 36 39 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 -3 -6 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 215 215 212 216 227 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.6 25.7 26.1 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 116 117 119 120 124 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.6 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 41 40 39 39 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 12 11 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 1 -3 -11 -6 -4 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 8 24 6 -2 10 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 4 4 4 2 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1041 939 838 727 620 415 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.6 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.9 145.9 146.8 147.9 148.9 151.0 153.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -17. -25. -31. -35. -35. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -12. -17. -20. -23. -26. -27. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.9 144.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/22/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 34.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 302.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/22/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##