* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/22/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 31 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 31 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 29 27 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 35 42 42 34 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 -6 -5 3 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 218 214 217 228 236 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 119 120 121 124 128 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.6 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 40 40 40 38 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 9 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -17 -18 -11 -10 -26 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 0 -9 -8 0 31 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 6 8 2 1 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 924 807 691 582 475 241 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.4 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.0 147.1 148.2 149.3 150.3 152.7 155.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 10 11 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -21. -30. -37. -41. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.0 146.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/22/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 57.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 310.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/22/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##