* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/22/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 38 40 34 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -4 3 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 220 223 236 241 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 121 124 127 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 40 41 39 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -24 -16 -18 -19 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -21 -19 -7 8 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 7 4 2 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 827 722 618 490 363 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.9 147.9 148.9 150.2 151.4 154.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -22. -32. -39. -44. -45. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -13. -19. -24. -28. -32. -32. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.4 146.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/22/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 83.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 264.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/22/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##