* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/23/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 28 27 25 23 21 20 21 21 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 28 27 25 23 21 20 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 32 28 31 34 22 25 21 17 18 20 19 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 0 0 3 0 -2 0 -3 -1 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 241 243 248 259 273 268 279 277 289 284 303 321 329 SST (C) 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.1 27.1 26.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 125 126 126 128 130 132 135 136 135 132 136 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.9 -56.4 -56.7 -56.8 -56.9 -56.7 -56.7 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 36 35 33 32 32 35 36 36 37 38 41 40 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 4 3 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -25 -28 -28 -26 -42 -42 -48 -50 -62 -64 -78 -85 200 MB DIV -4 5 10 10 6 9 7 -6 -13 -5 -36 -33 -17 700-850 TADV 3 8 10 6 4 4 3 -8 -1 -15 -5 -13 -6 LAND (KM) 472 392 345 336 326 306 317 327 421 593 805 1008 1235 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.6 21.3 21.9 23.2 24.2 25.1 25.7 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 150.3 151.1 151.7 152.2 152.8 154.5 156.5 158.7 161.2 163.6 166.2 168.5 171.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 9 11 11 11 11 12 11 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 2 5 12 10 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -13. -20. -26. -29. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.8 150.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/23/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.97 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 88.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 250.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/23/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##