* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/14/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 37 40 44 47 51 52 50 50 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 37 40 44 47 51 52 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 28 29 30 31 33 34 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 13 13 11 9 6 5 9 8 10 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 -4 -3 -1 1 3 6 SHEAR DIR 78 93 101 100 97 85 93 54 59 89 76 60 49 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 144 144 144 143 140 137 138 138 138 139 141 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 66 64 60 59 59 56 56 57 56 56 54 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 14 15 15 14 16 15 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 55 38 16 1 -8 -20 -21 -20 -17 -12 -11 -2 10 200 MB DIV 46 39 19 10 9 -8 -7 -11 -8 16 39 30 15 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -4 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 1423 1456 1491 1513 1536 1607 1688 1705 1680 1672 1705 1658 1572 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.8 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 121.2 121.8 122.4 122.8 123.2 124.1 125.1 125.3 125.0 124.9 125.3 125.0 124.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 4 4 4 3 0 1 0 1 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 14 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 17. 21. 22. 20. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 121.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/14/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.28 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.22 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 142.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 13.3% 8.6% 6.2% 0.0% 10.4% 11.3% 9.3% Logistic: 0.3% 2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 5.2% 3.2% 2.1% 0.0% 3.8% 3.8% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/14/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##