* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/11/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 47 53 58 68 75 81 81 81 75 70 69 V (KT) LAND 35 41 47 53 58 68 75 81 81 81 75 70 69 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 47 53 60 71 76 75 73 69 64 61 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 2 4 2 4 2 1 7 14 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -3 -3 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 70 61 67 121 196 309 180 245 152 65 94 104 112 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 151 147 144 137 132 128 126 127 126 131 132 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 60 58 58 56 57 54 53 48 41 34 33 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 17 20 21 23 23 24 22 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 9 3 7 7 1 -10 -21 -33 -21 -12 11 31 28 200 MB DIV 33 38 41 31 27 41 59 7 -1 7 20 -45 -16 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 -2 -4 -1 1 0 0 1 3 7 LAND (KM) 1092 1096 1114 1138 1144 1144 1113 1086 1084 1156 1274 1404 1560 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.3 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.4 117.4 118.2 119.1 120.2 120.5 120.7 121.0 121.9 123.4 125.1 127.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 9 5 3 3 3 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 42 43 30 22 18 22 20 14 8 4 2 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 26.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 11. 15. 15. 16. 12. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 33. 40. 46. 46. 46. 40. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.5 115.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/11/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.72 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.41 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.62 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.31 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 226.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.58 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.41 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 35.6% 25.2% 17.2% 17.0% 25.1% 22.9% Logistic: 22.0% 56.1% 38.4% 28.4% 17.1% 31.2% 35.8% Bayesian: 2.3% 36.4% 14.2% 3.9% 1.3% 7.5% 3.4% Consensus: 13.3% 42.7% 25.9% 16.5% 11.8% 21.2% 20.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/11/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##