* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/11/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 58 63 73 79 81 80 77 73 71 67 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 58 63 73 79 81 80 77 73 71 67 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 52 58 63 72 76 76 74 70 68 67 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 2 3 2 9 6 5 4 8 6 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 57 60 127 212 292 100 119 122 71 86 119 59 51 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.8 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 147 143 140 135 131 128 128 128 131 134 133 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 55 56 58 56 51 44 38 33 30 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 20 20 21 23 24 25 25 24 24 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 4 8 8 4 0 -5 -20 -24 -16 11 34 40 36 200 MB DIV 36 47 46 43 22 81 15 -9 -12 26 -41 -15 -12 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 1096 1115 1141 1139 1142 1136 1121 1101 1114 1200 1364 1518 1701 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.1 19.1 18.8 18.7 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.4 118.3 119.0 119.6 120.3 120.6 120.8 121.2 122.2 124.1 126.1 128.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 6 4 3 2 3 7 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 43 31 22 18 18 22 20 14 9 5 5 2 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 28.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 18. 23. 33. 39. 41. 40. 37. 33. 31. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.1 116.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/11/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 5.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.64 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.78 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.34 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 260.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.54 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.41 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 17.7% 44.3% 30.6% 20.7% 19.7% 39.4% 30.4% Logistic: 30.6% 62.3% 44.1% 37.9% 24.8% 28.7% 16.6% Bayesian: 6.5% 24.7% 9.3% 2.5% 1.0% 4.2% 2.2% Consensus: 18.3% 43.8% 28.0% 20.4% 15.2% 24.1% 16.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/11/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##