* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/11/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 62 67 74 78 78 74 68 65 59 58 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 62 67 74 78 78 74 68 65 59 58 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 56 61 65 71 72 70 66 62 60 59 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 2 5 9 6 8 6 10 7 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 0 -4 -5 -3 0 -1 3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 59 144 192 224 109 155 155 137 94 112 75 72 80 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 141 138 136 130 127 126 125 127 130 134 131 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 57 57 55 55 57 53 51 44 36 30 27 23 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 22 23 24 26 26 25 23 24 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 6 7 2 -2 -2 -13 -15 1 12 30 39 45 58 200 MB DIV 35 44 41 15 45 54 11 -8 1 -16 -43 0 -20 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -3 -5 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 LAND (KM) 1083 1099 1098 1093 1091 1059 1038 1050 1088 1204 1360 1573 1820 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.4 19.2 18.9 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.1 118.8 119.3 119.7 120.1 120.2 120.6 121.2 122.5 124.5 127.0 129.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 6 5 3 2 3 5 8 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 28 19 15 14 17 16 13 10 5 3 4 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 26.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 7. 7. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 22. 29. 33. 33. 29. 23. 20. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.0 117.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/11/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 5.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.55 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.82 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.88 6.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.32 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 300.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.48 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.25 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 6.3 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 43.9% 30.8% 21.4% 20.4% 39.4% 21.4% Logistic: 28.7% 53.4% 38.3% 30.5% 18.9% 17.2% 10.3% Bayesian: 3.3% 12.6% 4.2% 1.2% 0.5% 2.0% 0.3% Consensus: 16.8% 36.6% 24.5% 17.7% 13.2% 19.5% 10.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/11/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##