* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/12/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 68 73 77 79 81 77 70 66 62 58 53 V (KT) LAND 55 62 68 73 77 79 81 77 70 66 62 58 53 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 70 76 80 82 82 77 70 65 63 59 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 3 2 7 5 9 6 7 10 12 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 -2 -7 -3 0 2 0 1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 126 199 162 162 124 129 110 110 78 83 86 103 122 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 139 136 132 128 125 125 127 129 133 135 131 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 57 57 53 48 40 33 29 28 25 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 23 23 25 24 27 25 23 23 24 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 2 2 0 -1 -7 -15 -8 4 24 33 42 44 55 200 MB DIV 29 44 44 52 31 9 5 -1 15 -46 -6 -6 -3 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -4 -5 -2 0 0 0 1 0 3 4 0 LAND (KM) 1105 1096 1091 1074 1059 1021 992 1019 1110 1257 1436 1644 1893 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.4 19.3 19.1 18.7 18.7 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.6 119.1 119.4 119.7 119.7 119.8 120.3 121.3 122.9 125.0 127.7 130.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 6 9 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 21 16 14 15 16 14 11 10 6 4 4 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 47.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 7. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 22. 15. 11. 7. 3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.4 118.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/12/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 7.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.42 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.22 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.89 9.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 7.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 7.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.35 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 357.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.40 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.43 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 4.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 9.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.1 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 30.2% 57.5% 40.7% 32.4% 31.4% 50.7% 17.5% Logistic: 65.6% 67.2% 68.1% 47.8% 38.7% 44.9% 7.0% Bayesian: 35.1% 21.2% 12.1% 5.6% 2.5% 3.3% 0.1% Consensus: 43.6% 48.6% 40.3% 28.6% 24.2% 33.0% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/12/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##